Market Update & Mortgage Insights: Week of November 17, 2025
Market Update & Mortgage Insights: Week of November 17, 2025 | Christophe Choo at Coldwell Banker Global Luxury is Your Local Real Estate Expert
A Clear Look at Rates, The Fed, and What’s Ahead for the Real Estate Market
The mortgage market remained remarkably steady this past week. With no major economic reports released—and the government shutdown ending with minimal drama—rates closed out the week virtually unchanged. For buyers and sellers navigating the Los Angeles and Beverly Hills luxury markets, stability like this helps maintain confidence, especially after several weeks of data uncertainty.
Government Shutdown Ends — But the Data Gap Remains
After a record 43-day shutdown, federal agencies are coming back online, yet the blackout left a significant hole in the nation’s economic reporting. Aside from one Consumer Price Index update, almost all other key indicators—labor, inflation, wages, and more—never made it to publication.
A White House official noted that October’s labor and inflation reports may never be released. Even when data begins flowing again, analysts expect several months of potential inaccuracies as agencies scramble to catch up.
For the financial markets, this gap has created a unique challenge: forecasting policy decisions without reliable numbers.
How the Fed Is Navigating Without Clear Guidance
This data drought has amplified pressure on the Federal Reserve. At the most recent meeting, Chair Powell emphasized that officials remain divided on the next steps. Several conflicting forces are at play:
Signs of Softening:
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Weakness in the labor market
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Softening hiring trends
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Concerns about holiday retail performance
Signs of Concern:
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Inflation remains stubbornly elevated
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Tariff-driven price pressure has not eased
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Lack of clarity due to the data blackout
As a result, investors are split almost evenly on whether the Fed will trim another 25 basis points from the federal funds rate during the December meeting.
Private Sector Data Is Filling the Gap
With government statistics on pause, analysts are turning to private sources for direction. One notable report from Indeed Hiring Lab showed a 16% year-over-year decline in retail job postings for October—a meaningful indicator ahead of the holiday shopping season.
Retailers report two major trends:
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Depressed demand expectations due to tariffs and the shutdown
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Higher voluntary quits—employees leaving due to uncertainty about better future opportunities
These private-sector data points suggest a cooling labor environment and reinforce the need for caution going into Q1 2026.
What to Watch This Week
With the shutdown behind us, markets are eagerly awaiting the resumption of official reporting. This week, investors will be watching for:
Key Releases:
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Minutes from the October 29 Fed Meeting (Wednesday)
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Existing Home Sales Report (Thursday)
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Updates on the schedule for delayed government data
The return of reliable economic information will be crucial as forecasts recalibrate for the end-of-year and Q1 2026 trends.
Mortgage Rates for the Week of November 17, 2025
Current Lowest Rates of the Year
Here’s a clear breakdown of the week’s top mortgage products and rates:
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Maximum Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 5.750% | 5.92% | $806,500 | Stable performance; strong option for conforming buyers |
| 15-Year Fixed | 4.875% | 5.04% | $806,500 | Attractive rate for buyers seeking faster payoff |
| 30-Year Fixed (High-Balance) | 5.875% | 6.05% | $1,209,750 | Popular across LA metro high-cost areas |
| 30-Year Jumbo | 6.000% | 6.11% | Up to $10,000,000 | Strong jumbo availability for luxury buyers |
| 10/1 Interest Only ARM | 5.625% | 5.74% | Up to $10,000,000 | Great for cash-flow-minded buyers |
| 7/1 ARM (Purchase) | 5.250% | 5.36% | Up to $10,000,000 | Competitive rate and flexible structure |
Special Programs & LTV Highlights
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10/1 ARM down to 5.35% for strong banking relationships
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70% LTV Program as low as 5.23%
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Exceptional jumbo & super-jumbo LTVs:
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Up to 80% LTV on $5M
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Up to 90% LTV on $2M
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Up to 96.5% LTV on $1.149M
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These offerings remain especially attractive for qualified luxury buyers in markets like Beverly Hills, Holmby Hills, Bel Air, and Brentwood—where jumbo financing is standard.
Closing Indicators (Previous Week)
| Instrument | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Treasury | 4.73% | +0.05% |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.13% | +0.06% |
| 2-Year Treasury | 3.60% | +0.07% |
| 6-Month Bill | 3.82% | +0.05% |
| Prime Rate | 7.00% | Unchanged |
Treasury yields continue nudging upward—an important trend to watch, as they heavily influence mortgage rate trajectory.
Final Thoughts
As the market transitions out of the shutdown, we’ll continue to see recalibration throughout the financial and housing sectors. For the Los Angeles luxury real estate landscape—particularly Beverly Hills, Bel Air, and Holmby Hills—stable rates and renewed economic clarity should support continued buyer activity through the winter season.
If you'd like a personalized analysis of how these market dynamics affect your property or purchasing plans, I’m always here to guide you with accurate, real-time insights.